DAY TRADING THE MINI DOW JONES FUTURES CONTRACT & ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Friday 9-3-2010 Dow Mini TOD

Mini Dow Jones Trade Of The Day

BookMark Dow Mini Trade of The Day!
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Thursday 9-2-2010 Dow Mini TOD

Mini Dow Jones Trade Of The Day

BookMark Dow Mini Trade of The Day!
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Wednesday 9-1-2010 Dow Mini TOD

Mini Dow Jones Trade Of The Day

BookMark Dow Mini Trade of The Day!
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No Confidence Tea Leaf

Reading The Summer Tea Leaves

No Confidence

Note the direction of U.S. economic growth during the past few quarters as identified in the quarterly growth chart—from a solid 5.0% real (after inflation) annual rate late last year, to a still respectable 3.7% pace during the winter, to an anemic 1.6% annual rate in the quarter just ended…

BookMark Dow Mini Trade of The Day!
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From Master Trader Joe Ross – Using Options To Limit Risk

Featured Trading Article
USING OPTIONS TO LIMIT RISK

Is trading easy or hard? To the outside observer, trading seems easy enough. You merely pick a stock, a futures, or a bond, bet it will go up or down, execute a trade, and see what happens. What’s the big deal? If it were that easy, however, everyone would be doing it and making millions. Unfortunately, it is not that easy, especially in a sideways market or one that fluctuates wildly. In a strong bull market like the ones we saw during the dot-com boom, amateur traders merely opened an online account and watched their account balances balloon. That all changed when the dot-com bubble burst. We’ve seen a taste of “the good old days” earlier this year, but even when the public is interested, and prices go up, trading is not easy. You have to work at it, and it’s not easy, to make profits across a series of trades.

Successful trading is part financial resources, part trading strategy, and part psychology. Suppose that you had a simple trading strategy. You might decide to find markets that temporarily went down on general weak economic news, but by all indications, those markets should increase when clearer heads prevail. You look at all the information, and decide to develop a trading strategy based on “seller’s remorse.” That is, you anticipate that there will be those investors who sold in a panic on weak economic news, and will buy back when they realize that the prices are still good for going long.

But there’s more to it than good trading strategy. You must also decide how much capital you will devote to the strategy. On any one trade you might risk 2-3%, but not all of your picks will go up in the way you had planned. Trading is also part mathematics. Some of your trades will come through, but others will not. You have to decide how many trades you will make, and how much you will risk. And, if you have relatively low financial resources, taking a 20% risk may be hard to handle. You may feel it would be a disaster if your approach did not realize a substantial profit. Psychologically, taking the risk can be anxiety provoking, to say the least. A jumble of thoughts may race through your mind as you execute the trades, and monitor them. As you anxiously await the outcome, you may barely be able to think clearly as your emotions overpower you.

What do you do if you can’t tolerate risk? An obvious solution is to simply take less of a risk. And that’s where options can come in. You may not want to get caught up in overtrading. Instead, it might be better to look for two or three option trades that are the most likely to produce a profit. You do not stand to make as much, but you are not likely to lose as much either. And if you have trouble tolerating risk, the peace of mind you get instead will probably be worth more than the profits you could have made, considering the financial and emotional risks it would require. What are the long-term consequences? On the one hand, it may seem that you will never make huge profits in the markets if you are not willing to take risks. After all, experienced, professional traders put on big trades and it doesn’t bother them. But you must decide if taking such big risks would be in your best interests. And until you are confident that you can make profits in market to market, you might want to sharpen your trading skills before taking big risks.

Don’t downplay the importance of risk management. There are financial and emotional benefits for limiting risks. A hard reality of trading is that there are few foolproof trading strategies. Even the most reliable strategy is bound to fail eventually. Market conditions frequently change, and when they do, your strategies must be changed also. The trouble is that you don’t know when a strategy will fail or when it will not beforehand. Your best defense against the sporadic changes in market conditions is to limit your risk. Limiting risk can be done through options. If you limit your risk, you’ll be able to survive the learning curve, and eventually become one of the select few who earn large profits from trading the markets.

Joe Ross and Trading Educators Inc.

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From Master Trader Joe Ross – Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Featured Trading Article
SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY

Trading at Fibonacci numbers has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it’s not the only one.

One of our students, I’ll call him Huey, has been having a bad month. He can’t seem to make a winning trade, and it is gnawing at him. He is starting to panic a little. As his account balance has diminished, he has decided to take precautions. No more dinners out. No movies or entertainment. He figures that he had better live a monastic life until things turn around. To save on his cleaning bills, he has even decided to wear the same clothes for a few days in a row (phew). He has also decided to never leave the house to save on gas bills. Even though it is a break in his daily routine, he has decided that the cost savings are essential. Despite all he is doing, Huey is finding that his outlook is starting to get worse. He is starting to believe that he’ll never get out of his slump. He is starting to think of himself as a loser.

Huey’s approach to his current misfortunes may seem reasonable, but he pays a psychological price for his precautions. Although it isn’t wise to spend too much, it also doesn’t make sense to change your routine too much. When you do, you give yourself a quiet message that something’s not right, and that it may be permanent.

These subtle messages can change your outlook. Put simply, if you start thinking of yourself as a loser, you may start acting like one, and you may never get back up to par. Before you know it, you may be acting out a self- fulfilling prophecy in which you expect to do poorly, you feel discouraged, and so you actually do poorly.

Trading is tough enough without making it even harder by thinking negatively. It’s easy to have a pessimistic outlook in which you view yourself as inadequate, you view your opportunities as limited, and you believe that there is nothing you can do about it. It’s essential to have a realistic outlook when it comes to the markets, but a pessimistic one is going to stop you dead in your tracks.

I know of just such a trader, I’ll call him Dewy. Dewy was convinced that if he could reverse engineer every indicator, he could then beat the market. But with all of his huge effort, one that cost him a lot of money, he was still a loser, and after awhile, he became so negative that it was virtually impossible for him to win. During the course of time that I knew Dewy, he lost over $400 thousand.

It’s definitely important to stay positive. Don’t break your winning routine. Don’t’ panic and start telling yourself that you are off your game and will never recover. Remind yourself that there are many temporary conditions that can go against you, but you don’t need to over-interpret them. It may mean nothing. If you are tired or feel over-stressed, take a break from trading. But realize that once you are rested, relaxed, and ready to return, you can eventually come out of a slump. The nice part of being a trader or investor is that if you are in a slump, you don’t have to perform. You can trade on a simulator, or otherwise find ways to paper trade until you come out of your slump. The key is to keep trying and stay optimistic enough to explore new possibilities.

If you feel that you have to make trade after trade, do so in simulated mode until things turn around. Whether we are conscious of it or not, our pessimistic expectations can powerfully influence us. If you are overly pessimistic, you won’t perform well. You won’t put in the extra bit of energy you need to move from mediocrity to becoming a winning trader.

So remember to treat yourself well, and stay optimistic. If you can cultivate a winning attitude, you can weather the storm and trade profitably in the long run.

Joe Ross and Trading Educators Inc.

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Dow Jones Chart Pattern History Repeats

Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern

Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment.

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